Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 2.301193 2.438072 2.586981 2.762639 2.966435 3.198394 3.486949
2025-05-18 2.090741 2.254730 2.440573 2.670596 2.953540 3.299078 3.768986
2025-05-25 2.004335 2.189280 2.405251 2.682593 3.040232 3.504278 4.190332
2025-06-01 1.910934 2.106355 2.339577 2.647445 3.059344 3.621126 4.515685
2025-06-08 1.849222 2.054024 2.303013 2.639720 3.105459 3.771412 4.915110
2025-06-15 1.804189 2.018938 2.284797 2.653114 3.180451 3.974145 5.463564
2025-06-22 1.730200 1.942565 2.207624 2.578917 3.119173 3.952815 5.590670
2025-06-29 1.686743 1.902869 2.175841 2.564508 3.143953 4.073227 6.041673
2025-07-06 1.634680 1.849399 2.122527 2.515279 3.109664 4.086569 6.263731
2025-07-13 1.617463 1.840078 2.127206 2.548265 3.205144 4.341783 7.184199
2025-07-20 1.616440 1.851240 2.159247 2.622077 3.372884 4.766262 8.937832
2025-07-27 1.588283 1.825283 2.138926 2.616361 3.407542 4.936072 10.091727
2025-08-03 1.563607 1.804135 2.125731 2.622824 3.468077 5.185976 12.073834
2025-08-10 1.519571 1.755466 2.071861 2.563231 3.405537 5.145780 12.575631
2025-08-17 1.494712 1.731821 2.052266 2.555680 3.435993 5.331880 15.010376
2025-08-24 1.468381 1.705333 2.027532 2.538471 3.446834 5.474258 17.915580
2025-08-31 1.443327 1.679744 2.002971 2.519868 3.452749 5.605960 21.923300
2025-09-07 1.431347 1.671682 2.003311 2.541337 3.538176 5.984223 38.734183
2025-09-14 1.392792 1.625787 1.946838 2.466561 3.425605 5.756293 33.553417
2025-09-21 1.374795 1.608105 1.931343 2.459107 3.448560 5.947268 59.273121
2025-09-28 1.346002 1.574718 1.891747 2.409775 3.382379 5.847320 62.761889
2025-10-05 1.341193 1.574701 1.901433 2.443393 3.490261 6.343422 NaN
2025-10-12 1.344466 1.586011 1.928256 2.507613 3.672081 7.217276 NaN